More than four months ago, Adam Goodman made a bold prediction shared by few: if Trump is within the margin of error going into the final weekend, he’ll win.
Below are the predictions of several major outlets going into Tuesday night’s election, along with Goodman’s “Daily Beast” column from June that started it all.
RealClearPolitics final polling average: Clinton 45.5% Trump 42.2% (USA Today)
Frank Luntz (Fox News pollster): “In case I wasn’t clear…Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States”
New York Times: “Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance of winning”
Days Before the Election:
Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton’s “win probability…“98-99%”…if Clinton doesn’t win, it will be a giant surprise”
Nate Silver (Silver’s 538 Group): “71.4% chance Clinton wins the Presidency”
Mathew Dowd (ABC News pollster): “a 95% chance Clinton wins…she’s going to win by more than 5-million votes”
Reuters: “Clinton has a 90% chance of winning”
Moody’s Analytics: “Clinton 332 electoral votes/Trump 206”
June 26, 2016
Adam Goodman: “If Trump is within a few points of Clinton in the polls going into Election Day, he will become President of the United States, leaving experts scrambling for explanations, and pundits grasping for cover, as the story becomes the stuff of political legend.
“The Hidden Vote”
The Daily Beast — June 26, 2016