On February 1, the first primary election will be held in Iowa, and some are concerned that Donald Trump may struggle to get supporters to caucus and vote. Adam Goodman appeared on Fox News’ America’s Newsroom to give an expert opinion on Trump’s strategy and ability to get voters’ support.
Though Donald Trump has no problem drawing fans to rallies nationwide, John Kasich says actual votes might not reflect polls showing Trump at the top of the GOP field.
“We see polls coming out of Iowa which suggest it’s a real right race between Cruz and Trump,” said Goodman. “Polls, of course, are modeled in past elections, and maybe, just maybe, Trump is altering the normal political calculus a bit.”
“The bigger question here is… if Trump doesn’t win in Iowa, which is entirely possible given the Cruz surge of late, what does he do moving into New Hampshire? How does he spin it? Does he lose ground and momentum, perhaps, going into a state that he probably has to carry to keep the Trump [phenomenon] alive and well?”
Goodman says that Iowa, despite its few delegates in relation to other states, will have a larger-than-normal impact on the primary election in terms of campaign momentum.
“It feeds into a narrative… that Trump, I think, has been very successfully throwing out there that he’s the head of a movement that’s going to be hard to stop,” said Goodman.
“It’s really hard to model or measure enthusiasm,” said Goodman. Trump supporters, unlike backers of other candidates, have never had to show up to vote or make their voices heard on this level. “He is a very unique candidate with a very unique way of bringing his message to the American people and I think, more than anything… this election is all about us and what we’re looking for in a leader.”