Biggest Poll-Driving Debates Yet to Happen – Fox and Friends; July 25, 2016

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Adam Goodman appeared on Fox and Friends to shed some light on the current poll numbers as we look toward the closure of the Democratic National Convention.

Current polls show Donald Trump with 41% of the vote and Clinton 46%, which is near the poll numbers at this stage of the election cycle from the 2012 election. At this time, Obama had 48% of the vote while Romney trailed with 44% in 2012, and in 2008, Obama led McCain 45-22% at this point in the cycle.

“They’re very similar. They’re almost within the margin of error,” said Goodman. Three points plus or minus in the polls is a near-tied race. “Romney was close to the margin of error, as is Donald Trump.”

Goodman also reminds Americans that there is a bounce following the conventions and that the rise we saw in Trump following the Republican National Convention may be the rebound from Clinton following the Democratic National Convention.

Barring major changes, Goodman said Clinton might gain 2-3 points following the closure of the Democratic convention.

“The biggest thing that’s going to start moving numbers are what I call the 3 Political Super Bowls,” said Goodman, referring to the upcoming presidential debates where Clinton and Trump will square off.

Goodman also cautioned that there might be a ‘hidden vote’ for Trump with supporters who do not publically voice their support. Goodman has written on this topic previously in The Daily Beast.

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